Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration: New by Dr. Marcus Kappler, Dipl.Oec. Andreas Sachs (auth.), Marcus

By Dr. Marcus Kappler, Dipl.Oec. Andreas Sachs (auth.), Marcus Kappler, Andreas Sachs (eds.)

This booklet deals the reader a state of the art evaluation on conception and empirics of commercial cycle synchronisation, structural reform and fiscal integration. targeting the continued integration method within the euro sector and the ecu, it analyses the mixing method that has taken position because the Nineteen Eighties and that's marked by way of the appearance of the euro and the giant expansion that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

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While the broadest view of the business cycle is certainly provided by real GDP, many studies focus on industrial production indices as a proxy due to monthly data availability. Some even argue that one should look at stationary business and consumer survey data to circumvent the problem associated with the identification of the cyclical component from trending statistical data (Gayer and Weiss, 2006). 1 are considered. A window length of 6 years has been chosen for computation of the correlations over a fixed rolling window.

75 75 80 85 90 95 00 Notes: 6 years rolling window. CF filter based business cycles. 00 70 75 80 85 90 44 3 Descriptive Analysis However, this broad picture of the development of mean correlations masks trends on the individual country level. Figure 6 shows the evolution of the correlations of the individual euro area countries vis-à-vis the euro area aggregate. The correlations are based on cycles which have been computed with the CF filter. These correlations basically confirm the results of previous studies, which show that particularly Greece and Portugal have had business cycles that have been uncoupled from the cycles shared by the larger European countries in recent years.

4 The PFA offers a broad view on the cyclical movements of GDP in the sense that it combines information from a broad set of macroeconomic key variables. For the project, we use the quarterly output gap series of the Economic Outlook regularly published by the OECD. 4 Beffy et al. (2006) explain the PFA procedure used by the OECD in detail. 2 3 Descriptive Analysis Methods for Measuring Synchronicity Contemporaneous unconditional Pearson correlations computed either between the business cycles of individual countries and a reference country or computed as unconditional bilateral correlations are the most commonly employed measures for synchronicity (cf.

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