Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs: Proceedings of by Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (auth.), Helmut

By Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (auth.), Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (eds.)

It is simply only in the near past that individuals have the instruments to pass judgement on how good they're doing whilst making judgements. those instruments have been conceptualized within the 17th century. considering the fact that then many of us have labored to sharpen the recommendations, and to discover how those might be utilized extra. the issues of decision-making and the speculation built correspondingly have drawn the curiosity of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational specialists, sociologists, not just for his or her common relevance, but additionally for a extra intrinsic fascination. There are a variety of institutionalized actions to disseminate effects and stimulate learn in decision-making. for roughly a decade now a ecu organizational constitution, founded as a rule round the psy­ chological curiosity in decision-making. there were meetings in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. convention papers were in part published+. The association has therefore stabilized, and its re­ latively lengthy background makes it attention-grabbing to work out what sort of advancements happened, in the region of interest.

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Additional info for Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs: Proceedings of the Fifth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making, Darmstadt, 1–4 September, 1975

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J. Evaluation of life and limb: A theoretical approach. Journal of Political Economy, 1971, 79, 687-705. Newell, A. A. Human problem solving. : Prentice-Hall, 1972. , Borgida, E. Crandall, R. , Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informative. ), Cognition and Social behavior. : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1976. W. Relation of perceived risk to preferences among gambles. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1975, 104, 86-94. Rappaport, E. Economic analysis of life-and-death decision making (Appendix 2 in Report No.

SLOVIC ET AL. " Copyright 1974 Chiaago Sun Times (reproduced by courtesy of Wil-Jo Associates, Inc. and Bill Maulding). the larger and bushier a tree is--in the detail with which specific compon'ents of each major pathway are presented--the greater the misperception may be. Thus, analyses intended to clarify decision makers' perceptions may, instead, distort them. Critics of nuclear power often appear to be playing on these proclivities. •• No acts of God can be permitted" (p. 6). COGNITIVE PROCESSES AND SOCIETAL RISK TAKING 23 Although Alfv6n's statement is an extreme position, it suggests that availability effects may make it difficult to engage in unbiased attempts at discussing low-probability hazards without, at the same time, increasing the perceived probability of those hazards.

The latter could be further analyzed into component causes, such as lights left on, cold weather, defective generator, etc. The likelihoods of these separate events are combined to produce an estimate of the overall probability of starting failure. The importance of fault-tree analysis is demonstrated by its role as the primary methodological tools in a recently completed study assessing the probability of a catastrophic loss-of-coolant accident in a nuclear power reactor (Rasmussen, 1974). The study, sponsored by the Atomic Energy Commission at a cost of $ 2 million, concluded that the likelihood of such an accident ranged between 10-5 (for an accident causing 10 deaths) to 10- 9 (for a 1,OOO-death accident) per reactor year.

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